Considering everybody's propensity for knee-jerk conspiracy theories, I'm not convinced that another manufactured terrorist attack will make the slightest difference in the election.
It might as well be proven that 9/11 was a setup, and as soon as Fahrenheit 9/11 comes out (along with some of the related material), nothing short of an actual popular election will be able to keep Bush in office.
A terrorist attack, foreign or not, will probably not bring people swarming to Bush's side. If anything, I'd guess that it will only confirm everybody's current suspicions about him.