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|  | | | | | | | | | | | The American People: “We’re not a dumb as you think”
completely rong. | | | |
| | | | | | | Yes you guys are right, when it makes the front pages of the the economist or maybe..
Financial times
Tuesday’s meeting of policymakers at the Federal Reserve in Washington will be the first since credit markets took a tumble, triggering the worst week for world stocks in five years ...
The Fed’s reduced growth forecast for this year and next is primarily due to signs that the worst US housing downturn in 16 years will continue longer than previously thought.
It will also need to take account of some mixed recent data. But overall the expectation is that the correction in housing will be largely contained, while the collapse of the subprime market will not spill over.
But the uncertainty has increased, according to Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JP Morgan. Mr Kasman says consumer spending can withstand a 5 per cent drop in house prices and a 10 per cent drop in equities. But if the cost of credit continues to rise, then “all bets are off”, he says.
The risk from this development is that a vicious circle develops as credit becomes harder to come by while the housing and equities markets lurch lower, he says.
That's a lengthy quote, but who are we to trust in economists? And the last link I put in was pure whacko--these guys however, happen to be talking about current events, not some statistical Ouija board that gives you the winning lotto numbers. To differentiate, those kind of 'economists' are as common as the miracle pill 'scientists' that come up with those amazingly innovative breakthroughs! [sorry, that always has special punctuation]
oh and there is a named css color called peachpuff. | | | |
| | | | | | | oh and whoah
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up 286 points at 13,468, marking its best one-day performance since June 2003, and making up for its 281-point plunge on Friday.
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| | | | | | | | i have no doubt there will be churning. it just seems like lenders, etc. have enough tricks (protect my profit-making ability!) that collapse will be a long way off.
and even if it is imminent, don't we deserve it?
p.s. i like how you underline 'collapse of the subprime market' but omit 'will not spill over'. | | | |
| | | | | | | | That Economist article concludes...
At the moment, most banks' balance sheets look pretty secure. The latest figures from the Banker magazine show that among the world's top 1,000 banks, Tier 1 capital—the most reliable liquid sort—rose by 18.3% last year. And Kevin Gardiner, of HSBC, says that profits forecasts for banks are still being revised higher.
But things could easily get nastier. And it is already clear that the titans of Wall Street and London will face a tricky summer. Holidays in the Hamptons and Tuscany will be cancelled. And more yachts will be put up for sale.
Even the admonitory at the end is pretty bland, a far cry from 'global collapse' or 'sky is falling' or 'buy shotguns and gold bullion'.
Definitely volatility and uncertainty are going around, and it's not great news for most people, but the only people I see shouting 'global collapse' are the same ones who always shout 'global collapse'.
As for predicting the future of the market... No. For a small empirical slice of why no, tune into the Larry Kudlow show on CNBC sometime. Even with his clear subtle-as-a-load-of-bricks 'goldilocks' agenda, he can't get all his guests to agree on the general thrust of the market. | | | |
| | | | | | | bah, I got lazy on the underlines, and I wanted to stress that there is an acknowledgment of the sub-prime collapse that people have been talking for months.
as for the usual gloom and doom stuff, I think there will always be the self-proclaimed prophets of doom, just that it is noteworthy some authentic banker types are not totally disagreeing.
In who's vested interest is it to continue the market? everybody's! It's a stacked deck against any real potential discussion [Ludwig Van Mises et al.]. It's also the conspiracy theory-side of economics. The free market is as free as the democracy we have today--just a shell game so the rich guy can hide his peanut. | | | |
| | | | | | | | Granted. No one who's been near a TV in the last 3 months would argue that the sub-prime market isn't collapsing.
In who's vested interest is it to continue the market? everybody's! It's a stacked deck against any real potential discussion
The neat thing about this mechanism is, it's not just bullshit. It actually works. It is -- literally -- a confidence game. If everyone thinks everyone else thinks everything is going okay... then it pretty much will. It's when people get spooked and pull back that you see a pullback cascade, which in turn is a fine reason for everyone else to pull back.[1]
You could argue that makes any effective media manipulation actually heroic instead of cynical (to wax grandiose).
[1] Not an economist, don't know what I'm talking about. | | | |
| | | | | | | | Boy will your faces turn red when Jesus chases all the moneylenders out of his temple and we learn the real value of the dollar. | | | |
| | | | | | | Freedom still costs a buck 'o-five. | | | |
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