The odds that John Sidney McCain will reach the age of 76 or 80 may be considerably higher than in the population at large.
Photo: AP
ST. PAUL, Minn. — Since John McCain announced Friday that first-term Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin would be his running mate, Democrats have been quick to point out that the 44-year-old governor could soon be just “a heartbeat away from the presidency.” The veiled reference to McCain’s advanced age is hard to miss.
It’s a macabre point to raise on the night when Palin will speak to the convention here — but a look at the actuarial tables insurance companies use to evaluate customers shows that it’s not an irrelevant one. According to these statistics, there is a roughly 1 in 3 chance that a 72-year-old man will not reach the age of 80, which is how old McCain would be at the end of a second presidential term. And that doesn’t factor in individual medical history, such as McCain’s battles with potentially lethal skin cancer.
“For a man, that’s above the expected lifetime at the present,” said Michael Powers, a professor of risk management and insurance at Temple University’s Fox School of Business.
The odds of a 72-year-old man living four more years, or one full White House term, are better. But for a man who has lived 72 years and 67 days (McCain’s age on Election Day this year), there is between a 14.2 and 15.1 percent chance of dying before Inauguration Day 2013, according to the Social Security Administration’s 2004 actuarial tables and the authoritative 2001 mortality statistics assembled by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
Going by the Social Security Administration’s tables, that’s nearly ten times the likelihood that a man aged 47 years and 92 days (Barack Obama’s age on Election Day this year) will die before Jan. 20, 2013.
Using the NAIC tables instead, which factor in the fact that Obama has been a smoker for most of his adult life, a non-smoker McCain’s age is still six times as likely to die in the next four years as a smoker Obama’s age.
Actuaries are quick to point out that mortality statistics describe broad population trends. They insist the models can’t necessarily be applied to individual people.
“Actuarial models are good for estimating the average future lifetime of, say, 100,000 50-year-olds, or how many out of 100,000 50-year-olds will survive to 60, but are lousy at estimating about one particular 50-year-old,” explained Jim Daniel, a professor of actuarial studies at the University of Texas.
The odds, then, that McCain will reach the age of 76 or 80 may be considerably higher than in the population at large.
Jack Luff, an actuary with the Society of Actuaries, also notes that the NAIC statistics are slightly weighted toward a higher probability of death.
“The [Commissioners Standard Ordinary] table is directed at life insurance and does have a margin in it with respect to extra deaths for financial reporting purposes,” said Luff.
The same calculations made by utilizing an annuity table, which is used for the purposes of disbursing pensions and tends to predict slightly greater longevity, suggest that a man McCain’s age has a marginally reduced one in ten chance of not reaching age 76.
Still, the quarter-century age gap between Obama and McCain is the widest ever between major-party presidential candidates. And no matter what table is applied, the difference in average mortality rates of men McCain’s age and men Obama’s age is enormous.
Better send out a lot of e-mails to world leaders over 70! Remind them of Tim Russert and Peter Jennings just for starters and fill them in on Ted Kennedy and others. How old is George Soros? Tell him to pack it in along with Warren Buffett and just sit and wait to die.
I am 70 and intend to just sit here taking my pulse and sucking on herbal tea until it is all over. This story is just ONE more rehash of the "age Issue" from the DNC and the nice folks at Politico.
Democratic motto: I got mine,now I am going to take yours and give it to people who vote for me. Politico: the official Obama robe rub and tingle site.
Well my fellow Americans it looks like the most corrupt institution in America, our mostly liberal MSM wolfpack press is really howling about Sarah Palin aren't they? If you ever wanted to see a in-the-tank for Obama bunch of corrupt liberal journalist's here's your chance. Their corrupt liberal feathers have never shown like their showing now.
I mean the National Enquirer is MORE of a "straight news" organization then the wolfpack of the Associated Press, MSNBC, CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, NYTimes, Washington POST, LAtimes, Newsweek, and Time. At least the National Enquirer check into the rumors of John$400 Edwards and his affair.
What we are watching now is the "political lynching" of Sarah Palin by those most corrupt liberal news outlets mentioned above. This new breed of "Liberal Fascists" that inhabit and make up the staffs in these disgraceful "news generating" propaganda outlets are the most intolerant people in America today. They makeup "lying themes" like McCain didn't vet Sarah Palin, he did. They create doubt and fear withing the America pubic that she's "just a step away from being the president". which she more qualified to fill then Obama. Theme's like "what does this say about McCain's judgement" and on and on and on one anti-McCain anti-Palin propaganda theme after another.
We have never seen an entity insert themselves into a political election like our liberal wolfpack has inserted themselves now. Every American needs to speak out against this Social Injustice and politicial lynching of Sarah Palin. Enough is Enough.!!
Even more reason to exercise sound judgment in the selection of a running mate. That he have a VP ready to step in on a minute's notice is of paramount importance! It is vital to the stability and well being of this Nation. If country comes first, so should every single decision made which will affect the country.
Which is precisely why McCain should have made a more responsible pick. Or bothered to think through his pick at all. Tonight Governor Palin will get up and give what I'm sure will be a wonderful speech. Kudos to her. None of this changes the fact John McCain failed completely to vet her, almost all of the ensuing political scandals having to do with her record (Trooper-gate, the secession Alaskan Independence Party, her flip-floppping on the bridge to nowhere, the absurd amount of earmarks, etc., etc., etc.) are a direct result of McCain's horrible choice. The buck stops with him. This is, essentially, John McCain's first executive decision. As it is for any Party's major nominee. And he failed it, because he was mad and makes decisions in a hasty, rash, irrational manner. The country simply cannot afford this. No to McCain 08.
Sort of like Jimmy Carter frozen in thought over Iran or Bill Clinton waiting for Monica and a fresh slice of pizza?
Democratic motto: I got mine,now I am going to take yours and give it to people who vote for me. Politico: the official Obama robe rub and tingle site.
Best to go with an old plagiarist with hair plugs and a slip and fall smile any day.
Democratic motto: I got mine,now I am going to take yours and give it to people who vote for me. Politico: the official Obama robe rub and tingle site.
"It's a macabre point to raise" Yes, not only is it a macabre point to raise but it is an inappropriate point for you and your pro Obama organization to make over and over and over again. How do you think it makes pro McCain people feel when you keep needlessly repeating your point. We know you are doing it as a scare tactic and you should be ashamed. How would you and the Obama people react if pro McCain people and news organizations kept endlessly discussing the probable assassination of Obama? Have you biased hacks considered any position except your own selfish one?
And to the greater overall point, rest assured the majority in this country think that the Republicans #2 could beat Democrats #1 on any subject or judgment any time and any place. Democrats, of which I am a former member, have their ticket upside down. The person with experience is supposed to be at the top. You're busted.
Or George W. Bush frozen in a school during our nation's greatest disaster. Or flying 3,000 feet above Hurricane Katrina. I'm sorry I'll take Bill Clinton and the pizza any day.
Lyndon Johnston had had a heart attach while still a senator and JFK was a bundle of disease and physical problems. I don't recall any loud din or worry from the Democrats.
Listen, are we EVER going to see Obama's medical records? What has he got to hide? We know he smokes, but what about any lingering drug habits? At least have him pee in a cup.
Democratic motto: I got mine,now I am going to take yours and give it to people who vote for me. Politico: the official Obama robe rub and tingle site.
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