On the surface, recent votes in Congress appear to signal a new Democratic determination to withdraw from Iraq. But the reality is otherwise. It is not only that the resolutions were drafted and adopted with the certain knowledge that they would be vetoed. More important, even if a future Democratic president did try to implement the new plans, the results would likely end up looking oddly similar to the Bush administration’s current strategy. In politics as in war, things are seldom what they seem.

The ‘surge” isn’t just a way into Iraq — it is also, for at least some in the administration, a shortcut to getting out of it. If basic security can be achieved even briefly — especially before the 2008 elections — Republicans with influence will advocate pulling most troops back while claiming that this time the mission really has been accomplished. It’s unlikely that a short-term peace will hold, but at least it might give the U.S. the cover to say that it has not lost the war. If Iraq collapses 6 or 18 or 36 months after U.S. troops are out, Iraqis can then be blamed for the failure. Erstwhile supporters of the war are already starting to justify this plan by hinting darkly that the Iraqis have to take responsibility for themselves — as if they could be expected to succeed in providing security and basic services when the world’s richest superpower has so abjectly failed.

On the Democratic side, there is also plenty of bad-conscience, blame-the-victim rhetoric to be found. Its most common form lies in the claim that the Iraqis have not succeeded in taking charge and governing themselves because they are waiting for the U.S. to do it. The theory here, to the extent one exists, seems to be that the Iraqi political classes could deliver law and order and reconstruction if only they really wanted to, but their incentive to save their country is somehow reduced by the presence of the U.S. Should we depart now, or threaten to start departing if the Iraqi government doesn’t meet certain benchmarks, the Iraqis will at last recognize their common interests and learn to cooperate.