Iran's High Tech, Low Cost Military: US Headache

The article presupposes a naval conflict at which both sides have their full naval forces at their disposal. And in which the US has only the goal of reopening the Strait. I think if the US decides to go to war over Hormuz it will not stop just at reopening the straight. It will be a total war and follow the traditional American road map.

The US always begins an armed conflict with massive air strikes which would cripple the Iranian Navy's support system (i.e. fuel and munitions supply). The efficacy of Iran's navy will also depend on the ability of their ships to dodge American ASM's (especially without adequate defense shields in the middle of the Gulf). Supplies and surface ships could be destroyed with minimal loss of American lives and materiel). Iran submarines are able to hid under water in the confusion of sonar, but that would also make it difficult for them to operate unless at periscope depth making them more vulnerable to predator drones armed with anti-submarine weaponry.

Finally the Article is correct that the straight is a choke point, but it is a two way street. If American's cannot enter Iranian's cannot leave. Hormuz opens into the Gulf of Oman which opens into the Arabian Sea which is part of the Indian Ocean. The US would have a distinct advantage there due to the massive water sizes. Also the straight is not just controlled by Iran, it is also controlled by the UAE and Oman and the remainder of the Gulf is also shared with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq who will likely try to push through the straight and force the Iranian Navy into a small area in which they are attack from both directions and above. This would leave Iran's southeast without adequate naval protection (presupposing the ability of American ships to neutralize Iranian forces in the open waters of the Arabian Sea).

Though this would be a protracted engagement that would sharply drive up oil prices, however the rest of the world is better prepared to handle the economic consequences of a war like this than Iran is. Iran's economy is being smashed by sanctions which could allow for the development of a "Fifth Column" in the case of war. All this doesn't even factor in Israeli Air Superiority in the region which would be bought to bear as would the American forces in Afghanistan which would divert Iranian military resources to their Eastern Boarder.

Overall though the author makes some good points, I think he over-emphasizes Iran's ability to make the Straight of Hormuz the only front of the war. When taking into account the possibility of multiple fronts and an Alliance that could include other Arabs countries whose economies are impacted Iran's advantage in the cramped space of Hormuz is really not that big a deal.